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Scenario Data for the Atmospheric EnvironmentThe SRES A1FI Emissions ScenariosKey Assumptions A future world of very rapid economic growth, low population growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technology. Major underlying themes are economic and cultural convergence and capacity building, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. In this world, people pursue personal wealth rather than environmental quality.
The SRES A1T Emissions ScenariosKey Assumptions A future world of very rapid economic growth, low population growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technology. Major underlying themes are economic and cultural convergence and capacity building, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. In this world, people pursue personal wealth rather than environmental quality.
The SRES A1B Emissions ScenariosKey Assumptions A future world of very rapid economic growth, low population growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technology. Major underlying themes are economic and cultural convergence and capacity building, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. In this world, people pursue personal wealth rather than environmental quality. The SRES B1 Emissions ScenariosKey Assumptions A convergent world with the same global population as in the A1 storyline but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in materials intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The SRES A2 Emissions ScenariosKey Assumptions A very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is that of strengthening regional cultural identities, with an emphasis on family values and local traditions, high population growth, and less concern for rapid economic development. The SRES B2 Emissions ScenariosKey Assumptions A world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is again a heterogeneous world with less rapid, and more diverse technological change but a strong emphasis on community initiative and social innovation to find local, rather than global solutions. Non-SRES Scenario: PICTLExperiments run with constant pre-industrial levels of greenhouse gasses. Non-SRES Scenario: 20C3MExperiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing as observed through the 20th century. Non-SRES Scenario: COMMITAn idealised scenario in which the atmospheric burdens of long-lived greenhouse gasses are held fixed at AD2000 levels. Non-SRES Scenario: 1PTO2X (1% to double)Experiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing from pre-industrial levels at a rate of 1% per year until the concentration has doubled and held constant thereafter. Non-SRES Scenario: 1PTO4X (1% to quadruple)Experiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing from pre-industrial levels at a rate of 1% per year until the concentration has quadrupled and held constant thereafter. For more comprehensive information about any of the SRES emissions scenarios, visit the SRES web site at CIESIN. |