Acknowledgements
We are grateful to Dr. David Viner at the University of East Anglia and Drs. Francis Zwiers and Slava Kharin at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis for providing data from AOGCM control simulations. Valuable comments were received from the following: E. Barrow, M. Hulme, L. Mearns, J. Mitchell, T. Mitchell, C. Rosenzweig, R. Stouffer and T. Wigley. Financial assistance for this work was provided by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, the Government of Canada and the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Trust Fund.

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